D11 land prices: what three Newton tenders are saying

A Frasers-led joint venture won the first Dunearn Road site at the old Turf City in June 2025. They paid S$1,410 PSF PPR for a 99-year leasehold plot good for around 340 units. Ten months later, in April 2026, six developers bid on a second Dunearn Road site next door. The top bid came in at S$1,625 PSF PPR, S$533m for roughly 325 units, and the award is still pending as of writing. A third tender, Peck Hay Road in Newton, closes on 11 June 2026 and will give a third reading on the same corridor.

That's three discrete data points on what developers think D11 land is worth, all within a year, all under the post-July-2025 Seller's Stamp Duty regime and the unchanged 60% foreigner ABSD that's been in place since April 2023. The three tenders aren't a forecast. They're a price discovery exercise running in real time, and the gaps between them tell you something about how developers are reading the Core Central Region right now.

Why D11 is the right test case

District 11 sits inside the CCR but doesn't behave like the D9-D10 spine. The buyer pool here skews local. Owner-occupier families anchor demand, and the pull factors are concrete: the Anglo-Chinese and Singapore Chinese Girls' catchments, Mount Elizabeth Novena, Tan Tock Seng, the Newton interchange. Foreign buyers are part of the mix but not the load-bearing share, which is what makes D11 useful as a stress test.

Since the foreigner ABSD jumped to 60% in April 2023, the foreign-led CCR launches in D9 and D10 have had to clear a much narrower demand gate. D11 doesn't have that problem to the same degree, which means a D11 land bid is closer to a pure local-demand read. If developers are paying up here, it's because they think a local-owner buyer pool can carry the launch PSF on its own. If they aren't, the read is bleaker, because D11 was the part of CCR best insulated from the foreigner withdrawal.

The URA Q1 2026 final release, published 25 April 2026, had CCR non-landed at +0.6% quarter-on-quarter. That's a step up from the flash estimate of +0.4% but still well short of the OCR, which printed +2.2%. CCR's been the quiet segment of the recovery. The land bids are arriving into that backdrop.

What the three sites cost, side by side

Site	Stage	Top bid PSF PPR	Total	Bids	Units	Tenure
Dunearn Road (1st)	Awarded Jun 2025	S$1,410	S$491.5m	9	~340	99-yr LH
Dunearn Road (2nd)	Closed Apr 2026, pending	S$1,625	S$533m	6	~325	99-yr LH
Peck Hay Road	Closing Jun 2026	TBD	TBD	TBD	~315	99-yr LH

The two Dunearn Road sites are next door to each other on the same Turf City masterplan. They're as comparable as GLS sites get, same district, same tenure, same release window, same masterplan. The 15% gap between the June 2025 bid and the April 2026 top bid is the cleanest read on land-cost movement we've had in the CCR for years.

That gap is the signal. The bid count tells the other half of the story. Nine bids on the first site, six on the second. Developer interest narrowed even as the headline price rose, which is what you'd expect if a smaller group of well-capitalised players is willing to pay up while the rest of the pack has stepped back.

Reading the 15% jump

There are three honest explanations for the move from S$1,410 to S$1,625, and they're not mutually exclusive.

The first is that the top bidder on the second site is pricing for a higher exit. To make S$1,625 PSF PPR work on a 99-year leasehold in D11, you need a launch PSF that comfortably exceeds where the first site can launch. Construction and finance for prime CCR strata residential typically runs in a wide range, and developers don't publish their internal cost stacks, so the exact breakeven is opaque. But the directional point holds: the second site's top bidder thinks the launch PSF on this corridor moves up between now and the eventual launch date, probably late 2027 or 2028.

The second explanation is that the first site was simply mispriced low. That's possible but harder to argue with nine bids on the table. A nine-bid auction usually finds the right number. If the price was off, it was off because the market itself shifted between June 2025 and April 2026, not because the auction failed.

The third is land scarcity. CCR replenishment through GLS has been thin for years. URA's H1 2026 programme is the largest reserve pool since H2 2021, but Confirmed List CCR sites remain rare. A developer who wants D11 frontage and doesn't already hold a collective sale plot has limited options. Scarcity premium is real, and it explains why the top bidder might pay above what a strict launch-PSF model supports.

The most plausible read combines all three. Some upward shift in expected exit pricing, some thinning of supply, and some self-selection in who's still bidding aggressively in the CCR.

What Peck Hay Road will tell us

Peck Hay Road is the cleaner Newton site of the three. It sits closer to the Newton MRT and the school cluster than the Turf City plots, which sit further west on the Bukit Timah corridor. A higher PSF PPR than the Dunearn Road 2nd site would be unsurprising and tells you mostly about location premium within D11. A lower PSF PPR would be the more interesting outcome, because it would suggest the April 2026 Dunearn Road bid was an outlier rather than a trend.

The bid count is the other thing to watch. If Peck Hay Road draws fewer than six bids, the narrowing seen in April 2026 has continued. If it draws nine or more, the pool's still active and the second Dunearn Road bid was a developer-specific call rather than a market move.

Neither outcome is a forecast. They're just the two readings that would change how the first two data points should be weighted.

Who's actually bidding

The Frasers / Sekisui House / CSC Land joint venture that took the first Dunearn Road site is a pattern worth flagging. CCR consortium bidding has been more common in this cycle than in the 2018-2022 stretch. A 99-year leasehold CCR site at S$491.5m all-in is a meaningful balance sheet commitment, and joint ventures spread that exposure. They also tend to bid more conservatively than single-developer plays.

If the second Dunearn Road site goes to another consortium, the read is one of disciplined, balance-sheet-driven bidding. If it goes to a single developer who took a stretch view on launch PSF, that's a different signal, and the eventual launch will test it.

Where this read breaks down

Three sites is a small sample. The 15% jump on the two Dunearn Road plots is striking, but you can't extrapolate it to a CCR-wide trend with this much data. The plots are next door, but the masterplan structure of Turf City means access, parcel shape, and visibility differ even between adjacent sites.

Construction cost is the other unknown. Specification choice and main-contractor pricing can move the breakeven by a hundred PSF or more, which means two developers paying the same land cost can land at meaningfully different launch PSF without either being wrong.

Finally, the launch PSF that eventually clears isn't always the launch PSF the developer prints on day one. Caveats can settle below the launch median over the first six months, particularly for CCR projects that price ambitiously into a thin demand pool. The land-cost read here is forward-looking by design, and it bakes in a view that hasn't yet been tested.

Bottom line

Three CCR tenders in a year on the same corridor is rare. The two Dunearn Road bids show land cost moving up roughly 15% in ten months, with bidder interest narrowing at the same time. The cleanest read is that a smaller group of well-capitalised developers is paying up for D11 frontage on the view that local-owner demand can carry a higher launch PSF, while a wider group has stepped back.

CCR PPI ran +0.6% in Q1 2026, well below OCR's +2.2%, so the price recovery story isn't being led by the centre. The land bids are saying something different from the transaction index, which is what makes the Peck Hay Road close in June 2026 worth watching.

For a buyer looking at upcoming D11 launches, the framework is the same one developers are using: take the land cost, add a wide construction-and-finance band, and ask what launch PSF makes the project work. Where the answer's well above current D11 launch comparables, the developer's pricing for a market they expect to arrive. Whether it does is the part the data hasn't settled yet.